482 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 90W north of 08N to Guatemala, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 07N between 89W and 95W. 

A tropical wave is near 119W from 09N to 20N moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N 
between 117W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 17N110W to 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 87W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N to 18N between 117W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extends across the Baja California
offshore waters. This is supporting light to gentle NW winds with
seas 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. Light to gentle breezes and seas
to 3 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh winds are
likely occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 5 ft. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas within mostly
SW swell are occurring across the rest of the souther Mexico
offshore waters. Strong thunderstorms are impacting Guerrero to
Oaxaca. 


For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will occur over
the northern Baja California offshore waters early next week with
seas near 8 ft. Meanwhile, N winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec at times through Tue as a tropical wave approaches 
the region while a ridge develops across the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico. Seas will approach 8 ft early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
during the early to middle parts of next week, near or just to 
the south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions could support gradual development of 
this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail north of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW 
winds are likely occurring with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Seas are 
mostly within S to SW swell across these offshore waters. 
Thunderstorms continue off the coasts of Guatemala southward to 
Panama. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate
seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through the middle
of next week. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Moderate to 
rough seas look to develop off the coasts of Guatemala through 
Nicaragua by Monday as a broad area of low pressure is forecast 
to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 20N and
as far east as 120W. This is bringing gentle to moderate winds N
of the monsoon trough to 31N. Seas in this area range 5 to 7 ft
within NW swell. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to strong
winds are occurring between 117W and 138W with seas 8 to 10 ft.
Otherwise, moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
with seas 6 to 7 ft within mixed southerly swell. 
 
For the forecast, surface ridging will build north of 20N and
west of 120W, promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will continue 
south of the monsoon trough west of 116W into Sun morning with
seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas look 
to develop east of 110W as an area of low pressure forms in the 
early to middle part of next week off the coast of southern or 
southwestern Mexico.

$$
AReinhart