000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 88W north of 08N to El Salvador, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted N of 09N between 78W and 91W. 

A tropical wave is near 115W from 06N to 20N moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N 
between 114W and 122W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 15N115W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 16N between 94W and 110W, and from 08N to 15N 
between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to extend across the Baja California offshore
waters. This is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds north
of Punta Eugenia, and light and variable winds south of Punta
Eugenia. Recent altimeter satellite data shows seas of 4 to 6 ft
within NW swell in this region. Light to gentle breezes and seas
of 2 to 4 ft are observed across much of the Gulf of California,
with locally moderate SE breezes across northern portions of the
Gulf. Light winds prevail over the southern Mexico offshore 
waters, with fresh to locally strong N winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mostly S to SW swell. 
Strong thunderstorms are impacting the Oaxaca offshore waters 
with frequent lightning and potentially gusty winds and locally 
higher seas. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to extend across the 
Baja California waters through early next week. Moderate winds or
less and moderate seas will prevail into Tue. Winds will pulse 
to fresh across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Tue as a 
tropical wave approaches the region along with a ridge developing
across the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Seas will approach 
8 ft early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form in 
the early to middle parts of next week off the coast of southern 
or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support 
gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves 
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical 
cyclone formation in 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. Strong thunderstorms 
continue across the coasts of El Salvador southward to Panama. 
These storms have frequent lightning and potentially gusty winds 
and locally higher seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the middle of next week. 
Moderate to rough seas could affect the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador early next week as a broad area of low 
pressure is forecast to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and W of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted from 25N to 31N with
seas 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. From the monsoon trough northward
to 25N and W of 115W, NE winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5
to 8 ft. Winds E of 115W are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 
to 7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to strong SW winds 
are occurring from 115W to 130W with moderate to fresh S winds 
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 10 ft within S swell. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and building
seas are expected S of the monsoon trough over the next couple of
days, particularly between 115W and 125W. 

$$
ADAMS