000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 88W north of 09N to El Salvador, moving 
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
N of 09N between 85W and 94W. 

A tropical wave is near 114W from 08N to 19N moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 19N 
between 113W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 16N108W to 11N124W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N
between 86W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 18N between 112W and 136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to extend across the Baja California offshore
waters. This is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds north
of Cabo San Lazaro, and light and variable winds south of Cabo
San Lazaro. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. Light and gentle
winds continue to prevail across the Gulf of California with seas
to 3 ft and closer to 4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Light
winds prevail over the southern Mexico offshore waters, with
fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas
range 4 to 6 ft within mostly S to SW swell. Strong thunderstorms
are impacting the Oaxaca offshore waters with frequent lightning
and potentially gusty winds and locally higher seas. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to extend across the 
Baja California waters through early next week. Moderate winds or
less and moderate seas will prevail through Tue. Winds will 
pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Tue 
as a tropical wave approaches the region along with a ridge 
developing across the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Seas 
will approach 8 ft early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form early
next week off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support gradual development of this system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a 
low chance of tropical cyclone formation in 48 hours and 7 days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. Strong thunderstorms 
continue across the coasts of Guatemala southward to northern
Costa Rica. These storms have frequent lightning and potentially
gusty winds and locally higher seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. Moderate to 
rough seas could affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador early next week as a broad area of low pressure is 
forecast to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and W of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted from 25N to 31N with
seas 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. From the monsoon trough to 25N
and W of 115W, winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 8 ft.
Winds E of 115W are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 to 7 ft.
South of the monsoon trough, scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong winds near 120W with moderate to fresh southerly winds
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within southerly swell. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and building
seas are expected S of the monsoon trough over the next couple of
days, particularly between 115W and 125W. 

$$
AReinhart