000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 86W north of 08N to Nicaragua, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted N of 09N between 85W and 89W, including the Gulf of 
Papagayo. 

A tropical wave is near 112W from 08N to 19N moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 20N
between 112W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua near 10N85W
to 15N110W to a 1011 mb low near 10N137W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 
92W and 103W and from 08N to 18N between 112W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and light and variable winds between Cabo San Lazaro and
Los Cabos. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in NW swell. Light SE
winds and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light winds prevail
with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 5 to 6 ft in the 
Tehuantepec region where fresh gap northerly winds are blowing.
Scattered thunderstorms are moving off the Cabo Corrientes coast
as well as in the southern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will extend across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate winds will prevail through this time.
Winds and seas are forecast to increase in the Tehuantepec 
region beginning on Sat night as a tropical wave approaches from 
the east, and a ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the 
Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The forecast calls for strong 
to near gale force winds winds and building seas to 8 to 10 ft 
early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form early
next week off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support gradual development of this system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.. Currently, this 
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in 48 hours
and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this 
system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are noted across the coasts of Guatemala through
northern Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. Moderate to 
rough seas could affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador early next week as a broad area of low pressure is 
forecast to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
110W producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds in this area,
where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft within NW to NE swell. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a pair of 1011 mb low 
pressure areas along the monsoon trough supports an area of
moderate to fresh winds between 110W and 135W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft
between 110W and 123W. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail within mixed
southerly swell.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and building
seas are expected S of the monsoon trough over the next couple of
days, particularly between 110W and 125W. 

$$
AReinhart