000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 84W, north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern 
end of the wave axis. This wave is generating scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. 

A tropical wave is near 111W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 18N between 108W and 115W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 14N110W to 12N120W to 
1011 mb low pressure located near 10N135W to 10N140W. Aside for 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 
08N between 80W and 88W, and from 08N to 14N between 115W and
138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and light and variable winds between Cabo San Lazaro and
Los Cabos. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. Light SE
winds and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California with 
light to gentle winds over the northern part of the Gulf. Elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters, light winds prevail with seas
of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec 
region where fresh gap northerly winds are blowing. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula the
remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend producing mainly
gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. Winds and 
seas are forecast to increase in the Tehuantepec region beginning
on Sat night as a tropical wave approaches from the east, and a 
ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico behind a cold front moving across the western
Gulf. The forecast calls for strong to near gale force winds  
winds and building seas to around 10 ft on Mon.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
early next week off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support gradual development of this system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Currently, this
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7
days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. Moderate to 
rough seas could affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador early next week as a broad area of low pressure is 
forecast to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
110W producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds in this area,
where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a pair of 1011 mb low pressure areas along the 
monsoon trough supports an area of fresh NE winds from 11N to 
16N between 125W and 130W. Scatterometer data indicate the
presence of these winds. An area of fresh to strong S to SW winds
is noted S of the monsoon between 110W and 120W with seas to 8
ft. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate winds, 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and building
seas are expected S of the monsoon trough over the next couple of
days, particularly between 110W and 125W. 

$$
GR