340 
AXPZ20 KNHC 051538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 82W, north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern end
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 109W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 09N to 15N between 110W and 120W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 13N110W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 11N133.5W to another 1011 mb low pressure near 
11N140W. Aside for the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be 
found from 04N to 08N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, within 
about 60 to 90 nm of the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica, 
from 08N to 13N between 120W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak subtropical ridge west of Baja California is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds north of 20N, and gentle winds elsewhere.
Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell off Baja and 3 to 5
ft seas farther south. Light winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are note 
over the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters, light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW
swell, except 5 to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec region where fresh gap
northerly winds are noted. 

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh gap winds and areas 
of moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, 
ahead of tropical wave over the western Caribbean approaching the
region. Winds and seas will diminish tonight into Sat as the 
tropical wave moves through the region. Looking ahead, winds and 
seas may increase again early next week across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and adjacent waters off Oaxaca as pressures lower 
south of the area over the tropical eastern Pacific. Farther 
north, weak ridging north of 20N will continue to support gentle 
to moderate breezes and moderate seas into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
110W producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds in this area,
where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a pair of 1011 mb low pressure areas along the 
monsoon trough supports an area of fresh NE winds within north of the
monsoon trough to 18N between 125W and 135W. These winds were 
sampled well in scatterometer satellite data. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, are observed south of the monsoon 
trough. East of 110W, gentle to moderate SW winds with 5 to 7 ft 
seas in SW swell are noted, although a pocket of fresh winds is 
evident among the thunderstorms between 105W and 110W.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through tonight, then increase
to moderate to fresh Fri west of 110W, with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
primarily in southerly swell.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
early next week off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support gradual development of this system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

$$
GR