178 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050847
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 81W, north of 04N, moving west at 10-15
kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. 

A tropical wave is near 107W, from 04N to 17N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N105W to 11N120W to 
1011 mb low pressure near 12N126W to another 1011 mb low 
pressure near 11N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection can be found within 60 nm of the coast of 
Mexico between 93W and 102W, and from 16N to 18N between 105W 
and 110W Scattered moderate convection can also be found from 
09N to 10N between 121W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak subtropical ridge west of Baja California is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds north of 20N, and gentle breezes
elsewhere. Combined seas are 4-6 ft seas in NW swell off Baja 
and, 3-5 ft seas farther south. Light breezes and 1-3 ft seas 
are note over the Gulf of California. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active along the coast of southern Mexico.  

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh gap winds and areas 
of rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, ahead of 
tropical wave over the western Caribbean approaching the region. 
Winds and seas will diminish tonight into Sat as the tropical 
wave moves through the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas may 
increase again early next week across the Gulf and adjacent 
waters off Oaxaca as pressures lower south of the area over the 
tropical eastern Pacific. Farther north, weak ridging north of 
20N will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes and 
moderate seas into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
110W producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds in this area,
where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a pair of 1011 mb low pressure areas along the 
monsoon trough supports an area of fresh NE winds within north of the
monsoon trough to 18N between 125W and 135W. These winds were 
sampled well in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, are observed south of the 
monsoon trough. East of 110W, gentle to moderate SW winds with 5 
to 7 ft seas in SW swell are noted, although a pocket of fresh 
winds is evident among the thunderstorms between 105W and 110W.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through tonight, then 
increase to moderate to fresh Fri west of 110W, with seas of 5 to
8 ft primarily in southerly swell.

$$
Christensen