000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 80W, north of 04N, moving west at 10-15
kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. 

A tropical wave is near 106W, from 04N to 17N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W to 11N120W to 
1011 mb low pressure near 12N125W to 1011 mb low pressure near
13N132W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found 
from 10N to 12N between 105W and 110W, and from 08N to 10N 
between 121W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Earlier ship observations confirmed moderate to fresh NW winds
off the central coast of Baja California, funneling between the
coast and the subtropical ridge west of the area. Gentle to
moderate winds persisted elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas in NW swell
off Baja and 3-5 ft seas farther south. Light breezes and 1-3 ft
seas are note over the Gulf of California. A few showers and
thunderstorms were noted off Cabo Corrientes. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the region will  
support moderate to fresh winds overnight off Baja California 
between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. The ridge will weaken 
and shift west Thu, supporting generally gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas over most of the Mexican offshore 
waters through early next week. The exception is farther south 
where moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Thu into Thu night ahead of tropical wave approaching
from the east. Looking ahead, these gap winds will diminish 
through late Sat as the tropical wave moves across the area, but 
will increase again Sun as high pressure builds over the region 
following the tropical wave. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
110W producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds in this area,
where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a 1011 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough 
near 13N132W supports an area of fresh NE winds within about 120
nm N semicircle of the low center with seas to 8 ft. These winds
were sampled well in a recent scatterometer satellite pass.  
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, are observed 
south of the monsoon trough. East of 110W, gentle to moderate SW
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are noted, although a
pocket of fresh winds is evident among the thunderstorms
associated with the tropical wave near 105W.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through Thu, then increase to
moderate to fresh Fri west of 110W, with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
primarily in southerly swell.

$$
Christensen