000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042118
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Sep 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 100W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 14N105W to 11N120W to 
1008 mb low pressure near 13N131.5W to 12N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 07N 
between 82W and 86W, from 08N to 11N between 113W and 116W, and 
from 12N to 15N between 125W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering
surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle 
to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters of Baja California 
where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds 
prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas of 4 to
6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico and 1 to 3 ft
in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in place over the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least Fri,
supporting pulses of moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of
Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, with 
mostly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. A ridge, across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, will
promote fresh northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
beginning on Thu, mainly at night. These winds may reach strong 
speeds on Sun, with seas building to 8 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
115W producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and a 1008 mb low pressure
along the monsoon trough near 13N131.5W supports an area of fresh
to strong NE winds within about 120 nm N semicircle of the low
center with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough,
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, are observed 
south of the monsoon trough.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through Thu, then increase to
moderate to fresh Fri west of 110W, with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
primarily in southerly swell.

$$
GR