798 
AXPZ20 KNHC 040906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W north of 03N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 13N122W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted north of 13N between 92W and 102W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 120W and
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends over the offshore waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and a surface trough over the Baja peninsula is supporting
gentle to moderate NW winds off the central coast of Baja 
California, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to 
gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion 
waters. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California through the middle of the 
week, supporting pulses of moderate to fresh NW winds off the 
coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia, with mostly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. Fresh 
northerly gap winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
by the end of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas to 7 ft, highest east 
of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 
115W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to
strong NE winds between the ridge and the monsoon trough at 
130W, accompanied by combined seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft 
are noted. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are 
south of the monsoon trough. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through Thu, then increase to
moderate to fresh Fri west of 110W, with seas of 5-8 ft 
primarily in southerly swell.

$$
Christensen