391 
AXPZ20 KNHC 030251
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 03N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 133W from 04N to 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 15N115W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 13N129W. The ITCZ extends from 13N130W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
09N to 12N between 92W and 109W, and from 12N to 14N between 
125W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends over the offshore waters west of the Baja
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds off the central coast of Baja 
California, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion 
waters. Seas of 4 to 5 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California through the middle of the week,
supporting pulses of moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of
Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, with
mostly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. Fresh northerly gap
winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of
the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with 
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S 
to SW winds are noted with moderate seas to 6 ft, highest east 
of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the waters north of 20N and 
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of 125W,
where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are 
noted. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are south of
the monsoon trough. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W over the next 
few days. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
to the Equator will remain moderate through the week, with seas 
of 5-7 ft primarily in southerly swell.

$$
Christensen