000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 85W north of 04N, moving westward at 
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 120W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 117W and 120W.

A tropical wave is along 135W from 05N to 20N, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 
14N and W of 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N140W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
and E of 110W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds prevail off Baja California, with a small area
of moderate to fresh winds near the coast just south of Punta 
Eugenia. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in this area. These winds are 
funneling between the coast and a ridge extending across the 
region. Light to gentle breezes are evident elsewhere over 
Mexican offshore waters, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open 
waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Colima and
Jalisco, and Michoacan.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the middle
of next week. This pattern will support moderate NW winds and 
moderate to fresh seas between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia
through Sat night, and light to gentle breezes elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue near El Salvador 
and Guatemala. In the Papagayo region, moderate NE winds and 
moderate seas prevail. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the area north of the monsoon trough with slight to 
moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds are ongoing with moderate seas to 7 ft, highest east 
of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region into mid week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the waters north of 20N and 
west of 110W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 5-6 ft 
seas prevail elsewhere across the subtropical waters under the 
influence of the ridge. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are 
noted south of the monsoon trough. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to build 
across most of the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W 
toward the end of the week. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of 
the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to fresh 
through the week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
ERA