000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310323
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 81W north of 04N moving westward at 
10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical
wave.

A tropical wave is near 118W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N
between 117W and 122W.

A tropical wave is along 134W from 07N to 20N, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 
13N between 133W and 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N95W to 15N105W to
1012 mb low pressure near 12N134W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
08N to 12N and between 85W and 88W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Earlier ship and scatterometer satellite data indicated mainly
moderate NW winds off Baja California, with a small area of
moderate to fresh winds near the coast just south of Punta
Eugenia. The ship indicated seas were 5 to 6 ft in this area.
These winds are funneling between the coast and a ridge extending
across the region. Mostly light to gentle breezes are evident 
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 3 to 5 ft combined 
seas in open waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are active 
off Colima and Jalisco, and Michoacan.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the middle
of next week. This pattern will support moderate NW winds and 
moderate to fresh seas between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia
through Sat night, and light to gentle breezes elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues mainly over the
Gulf of Fonseca. In the Papagayo region, moderate NE winds and 
moderate seas prevail. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the area north of the monsoon trough with slight to 
moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds are ongoing with moderate seas to 7 ft, highest east 
of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region into mid week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh winds are possible within 120 nm north of a
1010 mb low pressure area near 11N133W. Elsewhere, a surface 
ridge dominates most of the waters north of 20N and west of 110W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 5-6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere across the subtropical waters under the influence of 
the ridge. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of 
the monsoon trough. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will build across most of 
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W toward the end 
of the week. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon 
trough to the Equator will remain moderate to fresh through the 
week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Christensen