000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300245
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 113W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical
wave.

A tropical wave is along 130W from 08N to 18N, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted from 09N to 
11N between 127W and 132W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N92W to 13N105W to
09N135W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
wave described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 10N and east of 85W, and from 08N to 100N 
between 97W and 101W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Earlier ship observations indicated moderate to fresh winds off
the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia. Concurrent altimeter data showed 5 to 6 ft seas in this
area. These winds are funneling between the coast and the 
subtropical ridge west of the region. Moderate S to SW gap winds 
are active over the northern Gulf of California between the ridge
and low pressure over the lower Colorado River Valley. Light to 
gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through mid week,
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas north of
Cabo San Lazaro through Sun and gentle to moderate NW winds the
remainder forecast period. In the Gulf of California, gentle
southerly winds are expected with slight seas, except for brief 
moderate to fresh SE winds overnight. Light to gentle N winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and over portions of the 
southern Mexican waters through the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing 
off western Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters, south of the 
monsoon trough. In the Papagayo region, moderate to fresh NE 
winds and moderate seas to 5 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere across the area north of the monsoon trough 
with slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ongoing with moderate seas to
7 ft, highest east of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region through tonight then light to gentle 
winds are expected. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will continue through tonight. Otherwise, winds will be light to
gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and moderate to 
fresh south of the monsoon trough through Fri. Afterward, gentle 
to moderate southerly winds will dominate across the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate 
seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough, the remnants of Hector, is analyzed along 137W
from 15N to 20N. Fresh to strong winds persist in the vicinity 
of the trough, with seas 8 to 10 ft.

A surface ridge dominates most of the waters north of 20N and
west of 110W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 5-6 ft 
seas prevail elsewhere across the subtropical waters under the 
influence of the ridge. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are 
noted S of the monsoon trough.
 
For the forecast, the trough that is the remnants Hector will 
move west of 140W through early Fri. A surface ridge will build 
across most of the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W 
toward the end of the week. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of 
the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to fresh 
through the week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Christensen