000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Aug 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 17.2N 134.2W at 29/0300
UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted NE of the center from 
19N to 22N between 130W and 133W. The low-level center of Hector
is totally exposed to the southwest of this convection. Hector is
forecast to continue to move towards the west for the next 
couple of days. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Hector is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday 
and dissipate on Friday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 106W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 
102W and 113W.

A second tropical wave is along 125W from 08N to 18N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 
07N to 13N between 116W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 12N115W to 
10N130W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N130W to 10N140W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical waves and T.S. 
Hector described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 02N to 09N E of 80W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to 
moderate winds with the same direction between Cabo San Lazaro 
and Los Cabos. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. Fresh N winds are
observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent scatterometer 
data. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over the northern 
Gulf of California with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are
1 to 2 ft across the Gulf, and 3 to 4 ft near to the entrance. 
Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
light to gentle winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed 
NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the week 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas N of Cabo
San Lazaro through Sun. In the Gulf of California, gentle 
southerly winds are expected with seas of 1 to 3 ft, with the 
exception of gentle to moderate SE to S in the northern part of 
the Gulf through Thu. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
expected elsewhere through most of the forecast period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are ongoing in
the Papagayo region. Moderate N to NE winds are also ongoing in 
the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere across the area N of the monsoon trough with
slight to moderate seas. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted, except locally fresh across
Ecuador adjacent waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region through Thu then further diminish to light
to gentle speeds on Fri. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will diminish tonight. Winds will be light to gentle 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate 
south of the monsoon trough through the remainder forecast 
period. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will persist, except 5 to 7 ft between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. 
Hector.

A ridge dominate most of the waters N of 22N and W of 115W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Storm Hector is
supporting an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds roughly
from 20N to 24N between 126W and 134W where seas are in the 6 to
7 ft range. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 4 to
6 ft prevail elsewhere across the N waters under the influence 
of the ridge. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds 
are noted S of the monsoon trough.
 
For the forecast, Hector will weaken to a tropical depression 
near 17.3N 135.9W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 
17.3N 138.6W Thu evening, 17.3N 141.4W Fri morning, and dissipate
Fri evening. As Hector moves westward and dissipate, a ridge 
will build across most of the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 
110W toward the end of the week. Elsewhere, southerly winds south
of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to 
locally fresh through the weekend, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Ramos