000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 17.8N 129.8W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 17N to 19N between 127W and 130W. Hector is expected to turn toward the west at a similar forward speed on Wednesday. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and it is anticipated that Hector will weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W101W north of 07N to inland Mexico. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 95W and 105W. A second tropical wave is along 116W/117W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 08N95W to 11N104W to 07N122W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 122W due to the disruption created by the circulations of T.S. Gilma currently located W of area and T.S. Hector. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves and T.S. Hector described above. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate N of winds in the 20 to 30 kt range over the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico is supporting this gap wind event. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region through Wed morning, then mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are expected with seas of 1 to 3 ft, with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S in the northern part of the Gulf through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the area N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft based on altimeter data. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Wed through Thu. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will persist most of the work-week, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. Hector. A ridge dominate most of the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical cyclones Hector and Gilma is supporting an area of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds roughly from 20N to 25N and W of 125W where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly moderate southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with the exception of moderate to fresh winds between 110W and 115W based on scatterometer data. For the forecast, Gilma has moved west of the forecast region and now is a tropical storm forecast to weaken to a remnant low by Thursday night. Hector will move to 18.1N 131.5W Wed morning, 18.3N 133.5W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 135.7W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.4N 138.1W Thu afternoon, will be W of area near 18.3N 141.0W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to locally fresh through Wed night, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR