000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered west of area near 18.5N 140.7W at 27/1500 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are 24 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 136W and 140W. Gilma is becoming less organized as it moves into the central Pacific region. Rapid weakening is expected today, with steady weakening continuing after that. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a remnant low by Thursday night. On the forecast track, a slightly faster westward to west- northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Future information on Gilma can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 17.6N 128.7W at 27/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate convection is seen from 16N to 19N between 126W and 129W. Little change in strength is anticipated today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, a westward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast tonight through the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W north of 07N to inland Mexico. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 90W and 105W. A second tropical wave is along 115W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 08N94W to 11N104W to 07N122W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 122W due to the disruption created by the circulations of Hurricane Gilma and T.S. Hector. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves and tropical cyclones described above. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas with the exception of moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to locally strong north gap winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region through Wed morning, then mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE winds are forecast Tue night through Thu with slight seas, then light to gentle winds are expected the remaining of the forecast period. The moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro will continue through Thu morning, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds the remainder forecast period. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the area N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Tue night through Thu. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will persist through mid-week, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. Outside of the above mentioned tropical cyclones, a ridge dominate most of the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting a belt of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds roughly from 20N to 25N and W of 125W. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Gilma will weaken to a tropical storm W of the forecast region near 18.6N 142.4W this evening. Hector will move to 18.0N 130.3W this evening, 18.3N 132.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 134.6W Wed evening, 18.4N 136.9W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.4N 139.4W Thu evening, and will be W of area near 18.3N 142.4W Fri morning. Hector will dissipate early Sat. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to locally fresh through at least mid week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR