000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.5N 139.2W at 27/0900 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are 25 ft. Numerous moderate convection is from 17N to 20N between 137W and 140W. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 17.1N 127.5W at 27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between 125W and 129W. A faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Some slight strengthening is possible on Tuesday, but gradual weakening is forecast after that. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W north of 07N to inland southern Mexico. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 87W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 114W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N102W to 08N120W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 120W due to the disruption created by the circulations of Hurricane Gilma and T.S. Hector. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves and tropical cyclones described above. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong north gap winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N, where seas are 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region through Wed, then mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE winds are expected Tue night through Thu with slight seas, light to gentle winds expected the remaining forecast period. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro will continue through Thu morning, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds the remainder forecast perios. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the area N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Tue night through Thu. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will persist through mid-week, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. Outside of the above mentioned tropical cyclones, a ridge dominate most of the waters N of 21N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds roughly N of 21N and W of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Gilma will move to 18.6N 140.9W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 18.8N 143.2W Wed morning, 19.2N 145.5W Wed afternoon, 19.8N 147.8W Thu morning, 20.2N 150.0W Thu afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 20.7N 152.3W Fri morning. Gilma will weaken to a remnant low near 21.8N 156.6W early Sat. Hector will move to 17.5N 129.1W this afternoon, 17.8N 131.2W Wed morning, 17.9N 133.3W Wed afternoon, 18.0N 135.7W Thu morning, 18.0N 138.1W Thu afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near 18.0N 140.9W Fri morning. Hector will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.0N 147.0W early Sat. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to locally fresh through at least mid week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. $$ Ramos