000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.4N 137.4W at 26/2100 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are 26 ft. Numerous to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed by late Tuesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening expected on Tuesday. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 16.5N 125.8W at 26/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 14 ft based on altimeter pass over the system. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm NE semicircle and 60 nm SW semicircle. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest and a west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W north of 07N to inland southern Mexico. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 90W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 112W north of 07N moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 112W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 09N114W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 114W due to the disruption created by the circulations of Hurricane Gilma and T.S. Hector. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves and tropical cyclones described above. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N to 14N between 100W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong north gap winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 13N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, with the exception of gentle to moderate NW winds over the northern part of the Gulf, particularly N of 29N and W of 113W based on scatterometer data. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region through late Tue, then mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected over the next several days with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will persist through Tue morning. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the area N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Tue night and Wed. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will persist through mid-week, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. Outside of the above mentioned tropical cyclones, a ridge dominate most of the waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds roughly from 20N to 25N and W of 120W, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft within the strongest winds, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Gilma will move to 18.5N 138.8W Tue morning, and will be just W of the forecast region 18.7N 140.9W Tue afternoon. Hector will move to 16.9N 127.3W Tue morning, 17.3N 129.2W Tue afternoon, 17.6N 131.2W Wed morning, 17.7N 133.6W Wed afternoon, 17.7N 136.0W Thu morning, and 17.7N 138.5W Thu afternoon. Hector will weaken to a tropical depression W of the forecast area near 17.6N 144.0W Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to locally fresh through at least mid week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR