000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.2N 136.5W at 26/1500 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are 28 ft. Numerous to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed by late Tuesday. Although some weakening is forecast during the next few days, Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 16.2N 124.9W at 26/1500 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of center, except 120 nm SW quadrant. Hector is moving toward the west and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next few days. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W north of 07N to inland southern Mexico. The wave is moving westward at near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 90W and 101W. A tropical wave is along 111w north of 07N moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 111W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 09N112W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 112W due to the disruption created by the circulations of Hurricane Gilma and T.S. Hector. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves and tropical cyclones described above. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are along the Baja California offshore waters. Fresh to strong north gap winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell, except 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region over the next couple of days generating moderate seas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will persist through Tue. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. A ridge dominate most of the waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting moderate to locally fresh east winds from 20N to 25N W of 120W, and gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft within the strongest winds. For the forecast, Gilma will move to 18.3N 137.9W this evening, 18.5N 139.8W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm W of area near 18.7N 141.9W Tue evening. Tropical Storm Hector will move to 16.6N 126.3W this evening, 17.1N 128.2W Tue morning, 17.4N 130.2W Tue evening, 17.6N 132.4W Wed morning, 17.7N 134.7W Wed evening, and 17.7N 137.2W Thu morning. Hector will change little in intensity as it moves W of area to near 17.5N 142.4W early Fri. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to fresh through at least mid week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ GR