000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.1N 135.9W at 26/0900 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are up to 26 ft. Numerous moderate convection is from 16N to 20N between 134W and 137W. A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed Tuesday evening. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 16.2N 123.2W at 26/0300 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 17N between 122W and 126W. Hector is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W north of 07N to inland southern Mexico. The wave is moving westward at near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N o 16N between 85W and 102W. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 110W, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 104W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 10N114W. See tropical waves section for convection. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are along the Baja California offshore waters. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell, except 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region through today, generating moderate seas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish slightly today, and change little through late in the week. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. A subtropical surface ridge is N of 25N and W of 117W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of 24N and W of 120W. Winds south of 10N are gentle to moderate, and seas are moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast, Gilma will move to 18.3N 137.1W this afternoon, 18.5N 138.9W Tue morning, 18.7N 140.9W Tue afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.0N 143.0W Wed morning, 19.4N 145.0W Wed afternoon, and 19.8N 147.0W Thu morning. Gilma will become post-tropical as it moves near 20.6N 151.0W early Fri. Hector will move to 16.6N 125.3W this afternoon, 17.0N 127.3W Tue morning, 17.4N 129.2W Tue afternoon, 17.7N 131.4W Wed morning, 17.8N 133.4W Wed afternoon, and 17.9N 135.9W Thu morning. Hector will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.6N 140.8W early Fri. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator will remain moderate to fresh through at least mid week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ Ramos