000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.1N 135.1W at 26/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are up to 35 ft. Numerous moderate convection is from 16N to 20N between 133W and 136W. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 16.2N 123.2W at 26/0300 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 121W and 126W. A west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W north of 08N to inland southern Mexico. The wave is moving westward at near 5-10 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with the wave. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 109W, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 100W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N98W to 10N114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N E of 91W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are along the Baja California offshore waters. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell, except 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night through midweek, with seas at times reaching 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish slightly Mon, and change little through late in the week. Little change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and T.S. Hector. A subtropical surface ridge is N of 25N and W of 117W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the two tropical cyclones is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of 25N and W of 120W. Winds south of 10N are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate to 7 ft as well. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma is near 18.1N 135.1W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Gilma will move to 18.2N 136.4W Mon morning, 18.4N 138.1W Mon evening, 18.6N 139.8W Tue morning, 18.9N 141.8W Tue evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.2N 143.7W Wed morning, and 19.6N 145.5W Wed evening. Gilma will become post-tropical as it moves near 20.3N 149.3W late Thu. Tropical Storm Hector is near 16.2N 123.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Hector will move to 16.5N 124.8W Mon morning, 16.9N 126.8W Mon evening, 17.3N 128.8W Tue morning, 17.6N 130.9W Tue evening, 18.0N 133.0W Wed morning, and 18.0N 135.3W Wed evening. Hector will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.1N 140.0W late Thu. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to freshen starting tonight and into the early part of the upcoming week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ Ramos