000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.0N 134.3W at 25/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are up to 37 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 132W and 136W. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual to steady weakening is expected through the next several days although Gilma should remain a hurricane into Tuesday. Tropical Storm Hector is centered near 15.9N 122.5W at 25/2100 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are up to 11 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 18N between 119W and 127W. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma and Hector NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 09N to inland northern Central America and the Bay of Campeche. The wave is moving westward at near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 12N and E of 95W. A tropical wave is along 108W north of 07N to the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The wave is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 106W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the trough and E of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte while gentle to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night through midweek, with seas at times reaching 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish slightly Mon, and change little through late in the week. Little change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into the early part of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and the now upgraded T.S. Hector. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass revealed Gilma periphery winds of 20 to 33 kt within 240 nm in the N semicircle and within 75 nm in the S semicircle. Seas are 10 to 18 ft with these winds. Also, the same scatterometer data detected 20 to 33 kt winds extending in the periphery of Hector within 90 nm of its center. Seas to 11 ft are noted with the strongest winds. Elsewhere over open water and outside Gilma and Hector, winds are gentle to moderate, except at fresh speeds south of 26N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft south of 25N and west of 126W, and also south of 20N between 116W and 121W. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to 18.1N 135.7W Mon morning, 18.3N 137.4W Mon afternoon, 18.5N 139.1W Tue morning, 18.7N 140.9W Tue afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.0N 142.7W Wed morning, and 19.4N 144.5W Wed afternoon. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.0N 147.9W on Thu afternoon. T.S. Hector will move to 16.2N 123.9W Mon morning, 16.5N 126.0W Mon afternoon, 16.9N 128.0W Tue morning, 17.3N 130.0W Tue afternoon, 17.7N 132.2W Wed morning, and 18.0N 134.5W Wed afternoon. Hector will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 139.0W on Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to freshen starting today and into the early part of the upcoming week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ ERA