000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.0N 133.5W at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are up to 38 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 132W and 135W. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected although Gilma should remain a hurricane through early Tuesday. Steady weakening is forecast to continue through the end of next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (Invest EP92): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located well away from land over the central portion of the basin. It is analyzed near 16.5N121W, with minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Environmental winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a tropical wave that recently moved into the far eastern part of the area is along 91W north of 09N to inland northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward at near 10 kt. Scattered showers are north of 10N and E of 90W. A tropical wave is along 107W north of 07N to the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. It is moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between 106W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the trough between 88W and 98W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on Invest EP92, S to SW of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte while gentle to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night through midweek, with seas at times reaching 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish slightly Mon, and change little through late in the week. Little change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate northeast to east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into the early part of the upcoming week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and on Invest EP92. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass revealed Gilma periphery winds of 20 to 33 kt within 360 nm in the N semicircle and within 180 nm in the S semicircle. Seas are 11 to 18 ft with these winds. Elsewhere over open water and outside Gilma and Invest EP92, winds are gentle to moderate, except at fresh speeds south of 26N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft south of 25N and west of 126W, and also south of 20N between 116W and 121W. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to 18.1N 134.8W this evening, 18.3N 136.5W Mon morning, 18.5N 138.3W Mon evening, 18.7N 140.1W Tue morning, 18.9N 142.0W Tue evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 19.2N 143.8W Wed morning. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.0N 147.4W early Thu. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to freshen starting today and into the early part of the upcoming week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ ERA