000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Gilma is centered near 18.0N 132.5W at 25/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are up to 38 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows the earlier noted well-defined eye is clouding up and cooling based on latest temperature measurements. The satellite imagery depicts numerous moderate to strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 17N to 19N between 131W and 134w. A west- northwestward or westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Gilma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected although Gilma should remain a hurricane through early next week. Steady weakening is forecast to continue through the end of next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (Invest-EP92): Numerous strong convection remains displaced to the south- southwest of an area of low pressure located well away from land over the central portion of the basin. The low is analyzed near 16N120W with a pressure of 1006 mb. The aforementioned convection is seen from 13N to 16N between 120W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 10N116W. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass highlighted fresh to strong winds within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 240 nm in the SE quadrant and 120 nm in the W semicircle of the low. Environmental winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the system moves toward the west- northwest near 10 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a tropical wave that recently moved into the far eastern part of the area is along 89W north of 09N to inland northern Central America and the central Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward at near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 09N between 87W and 92W. A tropical wave is along 105W north of 07N to the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. It is moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 12N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 10N108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 83W and 87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on low pressure, EP92, S to SW of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte while gentle to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night through midweek, with seas at times reaching 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California. Fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish slightly Mon, and change little through late in the week. Little change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere. Meanwhile, low pressure, EP92, located near 16N120W 1006 mb, or SW of the Revillagigedo Islands has the potential for tropical cyclone formation and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate northeast to east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through Tue. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into the early part of the upcoming week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and on Invest-EP92. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass revealed Gilma periphery winds of 20 to 33 kt within 360 nm in the N semicircle and within 180 nm in the S semicircle. Seas are 11 to 18 ft with these winds. Elsewhere over open water and outside Gilma and Invest- EP92, winds are gentle to moderate, except at fresh speeds south of 26N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft south of 25N and west of 126W, and also south of 20N between 116W and 121W. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will maintain intensity as it moves to near 18.1N 133.8W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 18.3N 135.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 18.5N 137.3W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Gilma is forecast to continue to weaken as it moves to near 18.7N 139.1W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to just west of the discussion area near 18.9N 141.0W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt and weaken to a tropical storm near 19.2N 142.8W late Tue night. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to freshen starting today and into the early part of the upcoming week, with seas possibly building slightly as a result. $$ Aguirre