000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma: Gilma is centered near 17.6N 130.0W at 24/1500 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas have lowered during the past few hours to 29 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows what is a central dense overcast (CDO). The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Slight weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Portion of the East Pacific (Invest-EP92): Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development of the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W north of 07N. The wave is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 99W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N and E of 85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on low pressure, EP92, SW of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte while gentile to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh speeds in the northern part of the Gulf on Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region N of the monsoon trough, including the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, brief pulses of moderate northeast to east winds will occur in the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure invest EP92. Winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to 17.7N 131.3W this evening, 17.9N 133.1W Sun morning, 18.1N 134.8W Sun evening, 18.3N 136.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 18.5N 138.5W Mon evening, and 18.7N 140.6W Tue morning. Gilma will become post-tropical as it moves to 19.3N 145.0W by early Wed. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to freshen starting Sun and into early next week, with seas building slightly as a result. $$ ERA