000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.6N 129.3W at 24/0900 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas have lowered during the past few hours to 29 ft. Satellite imagery shows what is now a central dense overcast (CDO) feature and now longer the eye feature it had during previous days. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Gilma is forecast to acquire a slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion during the next few days. Slight weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane this weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Portion of the East Pacific (Invest-EP92): Numerous moderate to strong convection is west of an area of low pressure that is located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low pressure consists of spiral low-level cloud lines, and it has a pressure of 1007 mb. Upper-level winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 99W north of 08N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west of the wave from 10N to 14N between 102W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to 10N84W to 10N94W to 10N104W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 108W due to the disruption created by the circulations of EP92 and Hurricane Gilma. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the trough from 10N to 14N between 105W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on low pressure, EP92, SW of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte while gentile to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh speeds in the northern part of the Gulf on Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds in the Papagayo region have become light to gentle, northwest to north in direction. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with gentle moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, there will brief pulses of moderate northeast to east winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The seas to 8 ft in east swell that were over a part of the far western waters have subsided. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to near 17.8N 130.7W early this afternoon, to near 18.1N 132.4W late tonight, to near 18.3N 134.2W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, and continue to slowly weaken as it reaches near 18.5N 135.9W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, and weaken to a tropical storm near 18.7N 137.8W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Gilma is forecast to each near 18.9N 139.9W by late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt and soon afterward cross 140W. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator are forecast to begin to freshen starting Sun and into early next week, with seas building slightly as a result. $$ Aguirre