000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.5N 128.4W at 24/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are to 35 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Gilma's eye has become cloud-filled. The imagery indicates that there is good outflow in all directions. Numerous strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to 19N between 126W and 131W. Gilma is forecast to maintain a general westward motion during the next few days along with an increase in forward speed. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): Numerous moderate to strong convection are west of an area of low pressure that is located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Low pressure of 1007 mb is located to the east of this convective activity near 15N115W. Circularly defined low-level cloud lines are evident around the low center. Upper-level winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 99W north of 08N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west of the wave from 10N to 14N between 102W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to 10N84W to 10N95W to 10N105W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 108W due to the disruption created by the circulations of EP92 and Hurricane Gilma. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the trough from 09N to 12N between 106W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 100W and 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on low pressure, EP92, SW of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west Baja California Norte while gentile to moderate northwest winds are south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, and seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh speeds in the northern part of the Gulf on Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 87W. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Seas to 8 ft in decaying east swell are present from 17N to 22N west of 139W. These seas are forecast to diminish by early Sat. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to near 17.5N 128.9W Sat morning, to near 18.0N 131.5W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and continue to slowly weaken as it reaches near 18.2N 133.4W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 18.4N 135.1W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, weaken to a tropical storm near 18.6N 137.0W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and reach near 18.9N 139.0W by Mon evening and move to just west of the discussion area during Mon night. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. $$ Aguirre