704 AXPZ20 KNHC 231548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.4N 126.8W at 23/1500 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are to 36 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is present within 60 nm of the center while numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in the SW quadrant. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Gilma is moving toward the west. A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt. This system has a central pressure of 1007 mb and most of the convection is to the W of the low center from 13N to 17N between 114W and 118W. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 96W north of 08N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 95W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N105W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of 105W due to the disruption created by the circulations of EP92 and Hurricane Gilma. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh north to northeast gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate NW winds are noted across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are in the Gulf of California, with seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight, then in the central Gulf early Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 87W. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Tropical Storm Hone is west of the discussion area. Well to its east fresh to strong east to southeast winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are impacting the forecast waters generally from about 17N to 22N between 139W and 140W. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma will move to 17.6N 128.0W this evening, 18.0N 129.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 131.3W Sat evening, 18.6N 133.1W Sun morning, 18.9N 134.9W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 19.2N 137.0W Mon morning. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves W of area to near 19.9N 141.7W early Tue. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMCP1.shtml for more details on Tropical Storm Hone. $$ GR