000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.4N 126.1W at 23/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are to 36 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows that Gilma's eye has become quite ragged. Numerous strong convection is present within 60 nm of the center while numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 100 nm of the center, except within 150 nm in the SW quadrant. Gilma's present west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Gradual acceleration toward the west-northwest and west is expected during the next several days. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): An area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles to the south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, with a sheared rather ill-defined and elongated low-level cyclonic circulation center located near 14N113W. It has a pressure of 1007 mb, and continues to produce a large area of disorganized convection of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity west of the circulation center from 14N to 16N between 114W and 117W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 114W and 118W. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass displayed winds of 20 to 30 kt within about 150 nm away from the ill-defined cyclonic circulation center, except at a less distance to its east. Seas are 7 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while moving westward to west-northwestward across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also through 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 96W north of 08N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm west of the wave from 13N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 16N. Nearby convection is described in the following section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 09N84W to 09N95W to 12N105W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of there due to the disruption created by the circulations of EP92 and Hurricane Gilma. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 82W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 180 nm south of the trough between 90W and 97W, and from 08N to 12N between 102W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for information on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh north to northeast gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region were noted in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the northern part of the Gulf. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just inland the coast from just south of Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, other than the low pressure area EP92, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight, then in the central Gulf early Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte Fri into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are in the Papagayo region well downwind to near 10N89W as seen an overnight satellite ASCAT pass. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. See the monsoon trough section above for information on associated convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Tropical Storm Hone is well west of the discussion area near 16N145W at 23/0900 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Hone will continue to pull away from the area through tonight. Well to its east fresh to strong east to southeast winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are impacting the forecast waters generally from about 17N to 22N between 139W and 140W. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma is forecast to move to near 17.6N 127.2W early this afternoon as it begins to slowly weaken, then move to near 18.0N 128.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, move to near 18.4N 130.5W Sat afternoon, to near 18.7N 133.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 19.0N 134.1W Sun afternoon, and continue to weaken as it reaches near 19.3N 136.1W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 19.9N 140.8W by late Mon night and become post-tropical well west of 140W afterward. The winds and seas well to its east that are impacting a position of the far western waters as mentioned above will subside this afternoon. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMCP1.shtml for more details on Tropical Storm Hone. $$ Aguirre