000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Gilma: Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.3N 125.5W at 23/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are to 36 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows that Gilma's eye has become cloud filled. Numerous strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of the center while numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center, except within 150 nm in the SW quadrant. Gilma's present west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a mean center near 14N112W. It has a pressure of 1008 mb, and continues to produce a large area of disorganized convection of the numerous to strong type west of the center from 14N to 17N between 114W and 116W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 113W and 118W. An earlier ASCAT satellite data pass showed associated winds up to 25 kt, while seas are 7 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west- northwestward over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 95W north of 08N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to 102W and from 10N to 14N. Nearby convection is described in the following section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 09N74W to 09N91W to 12N105W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of there due to disruption and the circulations of EP92 and Hurricane Gilma. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 82W and 86W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 83W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 89W and 92W and also between 101W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for information on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh north to northeast gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region were noted in the latest ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the northern part of the Gulf. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just inland the coast from just south of Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, other than the low pressure area EP92, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight, then in the central Gulf early Sat. Fresh northwest winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte Fri into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area, and with seas building to around 8 ft at times there. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds are in the Papagayo region well downwind to near 10N89W. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. See the monsoon trough section above for information on associated convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region for the next couple of nights. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Tropical Storm Hone west of the area near 16N143W at 23/0300 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Hone continues to move away from the area with associated convection now just west of 140W. However outer associated fresh to strong east to southeast winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are impacting the forecast waters east of 140W, generally from about 14N to 24N between 133W and 140W. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Gilma is forecast to move to near 17.6N 126.6W Fri morning, then begin to weaken as it reaches near 18.0N 128.1W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 18.4N 129.8W Sat morning, to near 18.8N 131.5W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 19.0N 133.3W Sun morning, and continue to weaken as it reaches near 19.2N 135.3W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 19.8N 139.8W by Mon evening and becoming post-tropical west of 140W afterward. Tropical Storm Hone is forecast to continue to move well west of the discussion area, with outer associated winds and seas east of 140W diminishing and subsiding through Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMCP1.shtml for more details on Tropical Storm Hone. $$ Aguirre