000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Gilma: Hurricane Gilma is centered near 17.0N 125.0W at 22/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas have slightly subsided to around 34 ft due to a shrinking radius of maximum winds. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, with numerous moderate elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change is strength is expected before the hurricane begins a slow weakening trend into this weekend. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): A 1009 mb broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 14N112W continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily west of its center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 300 nm in mainly the west semicircle of EP92. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed associated winds up to 25 kt, while seas are 7 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west- northwestward at about 10 kt over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma and EP92, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is near 94W/95W from 06N northward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec and near the Chivela Pass continuing into the central Bay of Campeche, moving at a slower westward motion of 5 to 10 kt over the past several hours. Nearby convection is described in the following section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 1009 mb low pressure over western Panama near 09N81W to 09N100W to 13N105W. There is no monsoon trough or ITCZ analyzed west of there due to disruption and the circulations of EP92, Gilma, and Tropical Depression One-C just west of 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12.5N between 77W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for information on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh N-NE gap winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec per a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, with nearby seas of 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted nearshore between Cabo Corrientes and the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than the low pressure area EP92, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight, then in the central Gulf early Sat. Fresh NW winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte Fri into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area, and with seas building to around 8 ft at times there. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds are in the Papagayo region well downwind to near 10N94W. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with mainly moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. See the monsoon trough section above for information on associated convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region for the next couple of nights. Winds will be mainly light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Little change in seas is forecast into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Gilma, and on low pressure, EP92, south of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Hone is centered near 15.9N 142.2W at 22/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Hone continues to move away from the area with associated convection now along 140W and westward. However outer associated winds and seas are impacting waters east of 140W, generally from 13N to 22N between 136W and 140W. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker across the open waters, stronger near the systems mentioned above, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally 8 ft south-southwest of the California Channel Islands. For the forecast, Gilma will move to 17.4N 126.0W Fri morning, 17.7N 127.4W Fri afternoon, 18.1N 129.0W Sat morning, 18.5N 130.6W Sat afternoon, 18.7N 132.4W Sun morning, and 18.9N 134.4W Sun afternoon. Gilma will weaken to a tropical storm over 19.5N 138.5W Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hone is forecast to continue to move away from 140W, with outer associated winds and seas east of 140W diminishing and subsiding through Fri morning. Elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMCP1.shtml for more details on Tropical Storm Hone. $$ Lewitsky