000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma: Hurricane Gilma is now a Major Hurricane and is centered near 16.6N 124.2W at 22/0900 UTC, moving west- northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A continued slow westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Gilma may become a Category Four hurricane by tonight. Low Pressure Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): Numerous moderate to strong convection from 12N to 16N W of 136W in association with a 1006 mb low pressure centered near 15N139W has become a bit more organized overnight, and any further organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm. Currently, strong winds and seas of up to 12 ft are noted from 13N to 18N, W of 137W. This system is expected to move W at around 10 kt this morning, moving W of the area and into the central Pacific basin. After that time, strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to move near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with broad and weak low pressure centered several hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 15N112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 108W and 115W. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or less with seas to around 7 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system moves west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma, EP91, and the disturbance over the Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is near 92W from 07N northward to the Mexico-Guatemala border, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 07N to 14N between 90W to 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 15N112W, then resumes well west of Category Three Hurricane Gilma from low pressure, EP91, near 15N139W, to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 87W and from 06N to 17N between 98W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for information on a low pressure S of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to locally strong N-NE gap winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with nearby seas of 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft, highest near and west-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night into early next week, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh NW winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte Fri into early next week as high pressure builds southward into the area, and with seas building to around 8 ft at times there. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds are in the Papagayo region. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 6 ft. See monsoon trough section above for information on associated convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region for the next couple of nights. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas are likely to build slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by the end of the week with little change in seas anticipated elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Category Three Hurricane Gilma, low pressure in the far western basin (EP91), and low pressure S of the Revillagigedo Islands that has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and the aforementioned disturbances and Major Hurricane Gilma is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades north about 17N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the open waters. Seas across the open waters away from the aforementioned special features are 4 to 7 ft. Major Hurricane Gilma is near 16.6N 124.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Gilma will move to 16.9N 125.0W this afternoon, 17.2N 126.3W Fri morning, and 17.5N 127.7W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Gilma will reach 17.8N 129.3W Sat morning, 18.0N 131.0W Sat afternoon, and 18.3N 132.6W Sun morning. Gilma will remain a hurricane as it moves across NW portions of the East Pacific basin early Mon For the forecast elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. $$ Konarik