000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gilma: Category Two Hurricane Gilma is centered near 16.5N 123.8W at 22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center, except 270 nm in the SW quadrant. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next day, and Gilma is likely to become a Major Hurricane Thu. Low Pressure Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91): Numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 12N to 16N W of 136W have changed little in organized today in association with a low pressure (EP91) centered near 16N137W with 1006 mb. Currently associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas up to 12 ft. With gale-force winds now most likely to develop W of the area W of 140W, the gale warning has been cancelled. However, only a slight improvement in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or early Thu while it moves W at around 10 kt. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin tonight or on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with broad and weak low pressure centered several hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 15N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 105W and 115W. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or less with seas to around 7 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for the latest on Gilma, EP91, and the disturbance over the Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific, and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is near 90W from 07N northward to Guatemala, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 07N to 12N between 90W to 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N81W to 16N114W, then resumes well west of Hurricane Gilma from 16N131W to low pressure, EP91, near 16N137W, to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 17N between 98W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for information on a developing low pressure S of the Revillagigedo Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to strong N-NE gap winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with nearby seas of 7 to 9 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft, highest near and west-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region each night through at least the weekend, with seas at times reaching around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through Thu night. Fresh NW winds are forecast nearshore Baja California Norte Fri through the weekend as high pressure builds southward into the area, and with seas building to around 8 ft at times there. Little change in winds and seas is anticipated elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough are light to gentle, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 6 ft. See monsoon trough section above for information on associated convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo for the next couple of nights. Winds will be light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate south of the monsoon trough. Seas are likely to build slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by the end of the week with little change in seas anticipated elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Category Two Hurricane Gilma, low pressure in the far western basin (EP91), and developing low pressure S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and the aforementioned disturbances and Gilma is leading to moderate to fresh trades north of the monsoon trough extending to around 29N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the open waters. Seas across the open waters away from the aforementioned special features are 4 to 7 ft. Hurricane Gilma is near 16.5N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Gilma will move to 16.8N 124.7W Thu morning, 17.1N 125.9W Thu evening, and 17.3N 127.2W Fri morning. Hurricane Gilma will reach 17.5N 128.7W Fri evening, 17.8N 130.4W Sat morning, and 18.0N 132.2W Sat evening. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves to across NW portions of the Eastern Pacific basin late Sun. For the forecast elsewhere, southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to the Equator may freshen early next week with seas building slightly as a result. $$ Konarik