000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Gilma... Tropical Storm Gilma is centered near 15.1N 116.0W at 19/1500 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater within 45 nm of center with seas to 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within about 150 nm out from the center in the W semicircle and 60 nm in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the center from 09N to 14N between 109W and 119W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Well SE of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90)... An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 13N104W, then continues W of T.S. Gilma from 15N122W and along EP90 near 10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection associated with Gilma and EP90, detailed in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N and W of 84W, from 08N to 11N between 88W and 94W, from 09N to 16N between 98W and 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Gilma. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with gentle winds to the S. Seas offshore Baja California are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle SE winds and seas 2 ft or less are ongoing in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas associated with Gilma are mainly impacting waters in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Gilma will move to 15.3N 117.6W this evening, 15.8N 119.3W Tue morning, 16.5N 121.0W Tue evening, 17.0N 122.6W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 123.7W Wed evening, and 18.0N 124.7W Thu morning. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 127.0W early Fri. Another area of low pressure could form well S of SW Mexico mid week. Environmental conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds prevailing prevail N of it. A plume of moderate gap winds is impacting the Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, gentle winds S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough early this week will increase slightly to moderate by mid-week, with mainly light to gentle winds to the north. Pulses of fresh gap winds will occur nightly in the Papagayo region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Gilma and EP90. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, producing mainly gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N with moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. S of the monsoon trough, a corridor of fresh SW winds are occurring southward to 7N, with mainly moderate winds farther S. Seas across the basin are mainly 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Gilma will move to 15.3N 117.6W this evening, 15.8N 119.3W Tue morning, 16.5N 121.0W Tue evening, 17.0N 122.6W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 123.7W Wed evening, and 18.0N 124.7W Thu morning. Gilma will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 127.0W early Fri. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. $$ ERA