000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gilma is centered near 15.0N 114.6W at 19/0900 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within about 150 nm out from the center in the W semicircle and 60 nm in the E semicircle. A zone of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the center from 09N to 14N between 109W and 119W. A W to WNW motion at around 10 kt will prevail for the next couple of days, before Gilma slows in forward speed. Gilma is forecast to remain away from land, passing well south of Clarion Island today and tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gilma is likely to become a hurricane Wed or Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well SE of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90): Low pressure well SE of the Hawaiian Islands is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N to 14N W of 135W. This 1009 mb low pressure center is near 10N138W, and strong winds are occurring within 90 nm of the center. This low pressure is forecast to interact with a disturbance located to its ENE. If the system becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days while it initially moves slowly over western portions of the East Pacific. A faster WNW motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely by late this week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N94W to 12N104W, then continues W of T.S. Gilma from 13N119W and along a trio of low pressure centers; a 1010 mb low near 13N123W, a 1009 mb low near 13N131W, and a 1009 mb low (EP90) near 10N138W. Aside from convection associated with Gilma and EP90, detailed in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 19N between 80W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Gilma located well S of Clarion Island. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with gentle winds to the S. Seas offshore Baja California are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle mainly SE winds and seas 2 ft or less are ongoing in the Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas associated with Gilma are mainly impacting waters in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, another area of low pressure could form well S of SW Mexico mid week. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it move slowly WNW. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds prevailing prevail N of it. A plume of moderate gap winds is impacting the Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, gentle winds S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough early this week will increase slightly to moderate by mid-week, with mainly light to gentle winds to the north. Pulses of fresh gap winds will occur nightly in the Papagayo region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Gilma and a low pressure well SE of the Hawaiian Islands that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, producing mainly gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N with moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. S of the monsoon trough, a corridor of fresh SW winds are occurring southward to 7N, with mainly moderate winds farther S. Seas across the basin are mainly 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, in addition to Gilma and EP90, in the western portion of the basin, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a weak and broad low pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough along 131W, well WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is forecast to interact with another disturbance (EP90) to its WSW over the next few days, which could limit additional development. Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part of the week while the system moves slowly WNW before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently to the WSW. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details about all systems with the potential of tropical cyclone development. $$ Konarik