000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gilma is centered near 14.8N 113.5W at 19/0300 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within about 180 nm W semicircle of low center. A zone of scattered moderate convection is noted S of the center from 09N to 14N between 109W and 119W. A W to WNW motion at around 10 kt will prevail for the next couple of days, before Gilma slows in forward speed. Gilma is forecast to remain away from land, passing well south of Clarion Island over the next day or two. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gilma may become a hurricane during the middle of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gilma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well SE of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90): Low pressure well SE of the Hawaiian Islands is producing scattered moderate convection from 05N to 15N W of 135W. This 1009 mb low pressure center is near 11N138W and some strong winds have developed within 90 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. This low pressure is forecast to interact with a disturbance located to the ENE. If the system becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is possible in the next couple of days while it initially moves slowly over the W portion of the East Pacific. A faster WNW motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely by late this week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N93W to 12N104W, then continues W of T.S. Gilma from 12N118W and along a trio of low pressure centers; a 1010 mb low near 12N122W, a 1010 mb low near 11N131W, and a 1009 mb low (EP90) near 11N138W. Aside from convection associated with Gilma and EP90, detailed in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 81W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gilma located well SW of Clarion Island. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with some locally 7 ft seas near Isla Guadalupe. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Fresh gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas associated with Gilma are brushing the outer offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, another area of low pressure could form well S of SW Mexico mid week. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it move into the central portion of the East Pacific basin. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and within the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds S of 05N. Mainly gentle winds prevail N of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in long period SW swell. Higher winds and seas are near the convective activity associated with the monsoon trough. For the forecast, gentle winds S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough early this week will increase slightly to moderate by mid-week, with mainly light to gentle winds to the north. Pulses of fresh gap winds will occur nightly in the Papagayo region starting Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gilma and a low pressure well SE of the Hawaiian Islands that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, producing mainly gentle anticyclonic winds N of 23N with moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. S of the monsoon trough areas of fresh SW winds within generally moderate flow, with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, in addition to Gilma and EP90, in the western portion of the basin, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a weak and broad low pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough along 130W, well WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is forecast to interact with another disturbance (EP90) to its WSW over the next few days, which could limit additional development. Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle part of thee week while the system moves generally WNW before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently to the WSW. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details about all systems with the potential of tropical cyclone development. $$ Konarik