795 AXPZ20 KNHC 181600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven-E forms well south of Baja California. It is centered near 14.6N 110.7W at 18/1500 UTC, moving west- northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest and a slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N123W to another 1011 low pressure near 11N139W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Depression Seven-E and the low pressure systems, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 07N to 12N between 84W and 91W, from 09N to 15N between 95W and 105W, and from 12N to 15N between 125W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Seven-E forms well south of Baja California, and it is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Please see the Special Features section for more details. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with some locally 7 ft seas near Isla Guadalupe. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas. Fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Tropical Depression Seven-E is forecast to move westward S of the Clarion Island on Mon reaching tropical storm intensity. Another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific basin. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and within the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted offshore from Panama to Nicaragua. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough into mid-week while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas may build to 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala tonight into Mon as the SW flow increases some. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Depression Seven-E forms well south of Baja California. Please see the Special Features section for more details. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Closest to the high pressure centered, gentle winds prevail N of 25N. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. S of the monsoon trough, a zone of moderate to fresh SW winds extends to the Equator. Seas average 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven-E will move to 15.0N 112.3W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.4N 114.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 116.5W Mon evening, 16.0N 118.3W Tue morning, 16.2N 120.1W Tue evening, and 16.5N 121.8W Wed morning. Seven-E will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.1N 124.6W early Thu. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west- southwest over the next several days, which could limit additional development if this system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located further west. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of formation within the next 7 days. Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. A faster west- northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of formation within the next 7 days. $$ GR