000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180744 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A broad low pressure located several hundred miles off SW Mexico is producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 11N to 16N between 106W and 112W. This 1008 mb low is becoming more organized and is currently centered near 14N110W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds encompass a broad area mainly in the southern semicircle from the center, where seas of 8 to 10 ft have built. Fresh winds are also developing in the NE quadrant from the center. Upper- level winds are forecast to become more conducive for additional development of this system through the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 10 kt across the central portion of the eastern Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 139W from 08N to 19N, drifting W at less than 5 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N139W. The low is producing scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 135W and 140W. Some development of this small system is possible early this week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. By the middle of the week, this system could merge with a larger system developing to its east. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure situated near 14N110W to a 1011 mb low pressure located near 14N127W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with tropical wave and low pressure noted above, scattered moderate convection to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N E of 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 114W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad low pressure that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with some locally 7 ft seas near Isla Guadalupe. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of the aforementioned low pressure detailed in the Special Features section above, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with quiescent conditions prevailing elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted offshore from Panama to Nicaragua. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough into mid-week while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas may build to 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala tonight into Mon as the SW flow increases some. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation and the Tropical Waves section for details on a small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough. Closest to the high pressure centered, gentle winds prevail N of 25N. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. S of the monsoon trough, a zone of moderate to fresh SW winds extends to the Equator. Seas average 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the two previously mentioned low pressures, another broad low pressure centered near 14N127W is producing scattered moderate convection well WSW of southern Baja California. This 1011 mb low may interact with the aforementioned low to the WSW over the next several days, but some gradual development is forecast assuming it becomes the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle of the week while the low moves W to WNW over western portions of the basin. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation within the next 7 days. $$ Konarik