000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed near 14N109W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 106W and 112W. Fresh SW winds encompass a broad area mainly in the southern semicircle from the center. Upper- level winds are forecast to become conducive for additional development of this system through the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 10 kt across the central portion of the eastern Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 138W from 07N to 20N moving W at around 5 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N138W. The low is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 135W and 140W. Some development of this small system is possible this weekend into early week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. By the middle of the week, this system could merge with a larger system developing to its east. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure situated near 14N109W to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 15N125W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with tropical wave and low pressure noted above, scattered moderate convection to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 114W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad low pressure that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with some locally 7 ft seas near Isla Guadalupe. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of the aforementioned low pressure detailed in the Special Features section above, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with quiescent conditions prevailing elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted offshore Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early week while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range, except lesser in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas may build to 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala Sun night into Mon as the SW flow increases some. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation and the Tropical Waves section for details on a small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, generating mainly moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted, with the exception of some strong S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W. Seas average 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, in addition to the two low pressures mentioned above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle part of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation within the next 7 days. $$ Konarik