000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce showers 
and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. A 1008 
mb low pressure is analyzed near 13N107W. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is noted mainly in N semicircle of 
the low center from 13N to 16N between 106W and 110W. Upper-level
winds are forecast to be generally conducive for additional 
development of this system through the weekend, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while it 
moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt across the central 
portion of the eastern Pacific. Now this system has a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through
7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 138W from 07N to 20N moving W at 5 to 
10 kt. Weak low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N138W. 
The low is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this system is possible this weekend into 
early next week while it moves slowly over the western portion of
the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle of next
week, this system could merge with a larger system developing to
its east. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 48 hours and through 7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to a 1008 mb 
low pressure situated near 13N106W to another 1008 mb low 
pressure located near 15N120W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with tropical wave and low pressure noted 
above, scattered moderate convection can be found from 04N to 08N
between 79W and 90W, from 06N to 12N between 95W and 102W, and 
from 08N to 11N between 110W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters off Baja 
California supporting mainly gentle to locally moderate NW winds.
Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 6 ft primarily NW swell 
across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf
of California, mainly gentle SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas 
prevail. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long
period SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the 
offshore waters of Baja California through early next week 
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas. 
Fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light 
to gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in 
long period SW swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted mainly over western Panama, and in the Gulf 
of Panama.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough through early next week while light 
to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 
ft range, except lesser in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Seas
may build to 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters from
northern Costa Rica to Guatemala Sun night into Mon as the SW 
flow increases some.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico that has a potential for tropical 
cyclone formation, and the Tropical Waves section for details on
a small area of low pressure located well southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands.

High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, 
generating mainly moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S, moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are noted, with the exception of fresh
to strong S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough between 110W and
120W. Seas average 5 to 7 ft based several altimeter passes.

For the forecast, in addition to the two low pressures mentioned
above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. While this system may interact with another area of 
low pressure to its west-southwest over the next several days, 
some gradual development of this system is forecasted if it 
remains the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely
form during the middle part of next week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the 
basin and into the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of this 
system over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation 
within the next 7 days. 

$$
GR