000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms that are beginning to show signs of
organization. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed near 13N106W. 
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 
12N to 16N between 105W and 110W. Upper-level winds are forecast 
to be generally conducive for additional development of this 
system over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 
about 5 to 10 kt across the central portion of the eastern 
Pacific. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation 
through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 138W from 07N to 20N moving W at 5 to 
10 kt. Weak low pressure has formed near 12.5N138W in association
with this tropical wave. Some development of this system is 
possible this weekend into early next week while it moves slowly 
over the western portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific 
basin. By the middle of next week, this system could merge with a
larger system expected to develop to its east. Scattered 
moderate convection is ongoing from 10N to 15N between 130W and 
138W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 48 hours and through 7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to a 1008 mb 
low pressure situated near 13N106W to another 1008 mb low 
pressure located near 15N120W to beyond 13N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with tropical wave and low pressure noted 
above, scattered moderate convection can be found from 04N to 08N
between 79W and 90W, from 06N to 12N between 95W and 102W, and 
from 08N to 11N between 110W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters off Baja California 
supporting mainly gentle to locally moderate NW winds. Seas are 
generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 7 ft N of Punta Eugenia in 
primarily NW swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle SE 
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Moderate to fresh N winds are 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere 
across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through 
early next week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 
moderate seas. Fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough 
while light to gentle winds are N of it, except for a pulse of
moderate offshore winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are 
generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough through early next week while light 
to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 
ft range, except lesser in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on broad low
pressure well offshore SW Mexico that has a potential for 
tropical cyclone formation and the Tropical Waves section for
details on another low pressure well E of the Hawaiian Islands.

High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, 
generating mainly moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S, moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are noted N of 05N and E of 130W, 
while gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas average 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, in addition to the two low pressures mentioned
above, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form this 
weekend or early next week more than one thousand miles west- 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
Thereafter, slow development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely form during the middle part of 
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across 
the western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific 
basin. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation of 
this system over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation
within the next 7 days. 

$$
GR