000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170732
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low Pressure well offshore SW Mexico (EP99): A broad low pressure
located several hundred miles off the SW coast of Mexico near
12N105W is producing a large area of scattered moderate 
convection from 10N to 15N between 105W and 115W. Fresh winds are
also occurring within about 120 nm of the center of this 1009 mb
low pressure. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more 
conducive for gradual development of this system over the 
weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next 
week while it moves WNW at 5 to 10 kt across the central portion 
of the basin. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation 
through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 137W from 07N to 20N moving W at 5 to 10 
kt. Weak low pressure has formed near 13N137W in association with
this tropical wave. Some development of this small low pressure
is possible this weekend into early next week, but by the middle
of next week, the system could merge with a larger system to the
E. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 10N to 15N
between 130W and 140W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pressure
situated near 13N126W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection 
associated with tropical wave and low pressure noted above, 
scattered moderate convection can be found from 07N to 12N 
between 90W and 100W and from 10N to 15N between 118W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure that has a potential for tropical cyclone 
formation.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters off Baja California 
supporting mainly gentle NW winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft,
except 6 to 7 ft N of Punta Eugenia in primarily NW swell. In 
the Gulf of California, mainly gentle SE winds and 1 to 3 ft 
seas prevail. Moderate to  fresh N winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 
ft in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through 
early next week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 
moderate seas. Fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough 
while light to gentle winds are N of it, except for a pulse of
moderate offshore winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are 
generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough through early next week while light 
to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 
ft range, except lesser in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on broad low
pressure well offshore SW Mexico that has a potential for 
tropical cyclone formation and the Tropical Waves section for
details on another low pressure well E of the Hawaiian Islands.

High pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, 
generating mainly moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S, moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are noted N of 05N and E of 130W, 
while gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas average 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, in addition to the two low pressures mentioned
above, another low pressure could form this weekend or early next
week more than one thousand kilometers WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California. Slow development of this system is 
anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to for during 
the middle part of next week while it moves W to WNW W across 
western portions of the basin. There is a low chance of tropical 
formation of this system over the next 48 hours and a high chance
of formation within the next 7 days. 

$$
Konarik