000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162036 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Its axis is along 103W/104W and a 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near 12N. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds within about 120 nm NW quadrant of low center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A second tropical wave is along 134W/135W from 07N to 20N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 10N to 14N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N93W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 12N103W to a 1012 mb low pressure situated near 13N126W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 08N to 13N between 90W and 100W, and elsewhere from 10N to 15N and W of 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge dominates the forecast waters off Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds N of Punta Eugenia, and light to gentle winds between Punta Eugenia and Los Cabos. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 7 ft N of Punta Eugenia in primarily NW swell. Moderate SE winds and 3 to 4 ft dominate the northern Gulf of California while gentle to locally moderate winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mostly light winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the weekend producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas. Fresh winds may pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. Mainly gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. Higher winds and seas are near the convective activity along the monsoon trough. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N W of 110W generating moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate southerly winds are noted between 100W and 110W while gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds prevail elsewhere. Seas average 5 to 7 ft across the open ocean based on altimeter data. For the forecast, an area of low pressure could form by early next week more than a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves generally westward across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin. $$ GR