000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W/103W N of 07N to inland Mexico moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 107W. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during 
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week while it moves west-northwestward away from the 
coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation 
through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

A second tropical wave is along 133W/134W from 07N to 20N moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N 
to 15N between 130W and 137W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N100W to 1011 mb low
pressure located near 12N111W to another 1011 mb low pressure 
situated near 14N124W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, a cluster of moderate to
strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 81W to the coast
of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
can be found from 08N to 13N between 90W and 100W, and from 10N 
to 15N between 110W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical cyclone development. 

A ridge dominates the forecast waters off Baja California 
supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds with moderate
seas in mixed SW and NW swell. Mainly gentle SE winds are noted 
in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Fresh N winds 
are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft 
range. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light winds
prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft mostly in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the
weekend producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate 
seas. Fresh winds may pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. Mainly
gentle S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light to
gentle winds are N of it. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long 
period SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough during the next several days while 
light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 
4 to 6 ft range. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical cyclone development. 

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N W of 110W generating
moderate anticyclonic flow. To the S of the monsoon trough, 
mainly moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas average 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure could form by 
this weekend well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this 
system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week
while it moves generally westward across the western portion of 
the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin. 

$$ 
GR