000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Aug 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W/99W N of 09N to inland Mexico moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 09N to 11N between 97W and 101W. Scattered moderate 
convection is elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 96W and 105W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while moving west-northwestward away 
from the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
details. 

A second tropical wave is along 129W from 07N to 20N moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N 
to 15N between 124W and 134W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 12N105W to  
1012 mb low pressure located near 13N122W to another 1012 mb low
pressure situated near 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection can be 
found from 06N to 09N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N
to 13N between 105W and 115W, and from 10N to 16N W of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with moderate seas 
in mixed SW and NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds 
are noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft, 
except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Recent
scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh N winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light winds prevail
with seas of 3 to 5 ft mostly in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the
upcoming weekend producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 
moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE 
to S winds and seas of 3 ft or less are expected, with the exception
of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. As previously mentioned,
a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while moving west-northwestward away from the coast of
Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate NE winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the 
monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are N of it. 
Higher winds are noted near the convective activity along the
monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in long period SW 
swell.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days 
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle southerly winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 110W generating
a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between
the associated ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough supports moderate to locally fresh trades from 14N
to 20N W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail. Higher winds are noted in the convective activity 
associated with the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, an area of low pressure will likely form during
the next couple of days well offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form 
early next week. As this system begins to develop, expect increasing
winds and seas roughly from 09N to 11N between 108W and 112W by Sat.


$$
GR