532 
AXPZ20 KNHC 151002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Aug 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends southward from inland Mexico near 20N to
10N, with axis near 97W, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 95W and 107W. 

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 127W, 
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
09N to 16N between 122W and 133W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N110W to 15N127W and
then beyond 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with 
the tropical waves in the section above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N E of 90W, and from
07N to 16N between 133W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is occurring from 07N to 15N between 108W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds, and moderate seas in mixed S and NW
swell, are ongoing across the offshore waters of the Baja 
California Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to
fresh N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4-5
ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW
swell, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds and moderate seas will 
prevail across the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula through Mon night. Southeast winds of the same speeds 
are also forecast the entire period for the Gulf of California 
along with slight seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will 
pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Sat. Otherwise, an area 
of low pressure will likely form this weekend well offshore of 
southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent slow development is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week as
the low moves west-northwestward. Regardlesss of development, 
moderate E to SE winds will affect the SW Mexican offshores today 
through Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are N and S of the monsoon trough, across
the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and
Central America. Seas are moderate in SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Papagayo, extending to the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters at times through early next week. Light to 
gentle winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough
through Mon night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, except Fri night into
Sat when winds will briefly reach fresh speeds. Seas will 
generally remain in the 4-6 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging, extending from a 1025 mb high near 34N134W,
covers the subtropical E Pacific waters W of 115W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the
monsoon trough and a tropical wave along 127W is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 27N and W of
120W. Seas over this region are in the 5-7 ft range. North of 26N
between the Baja California offshore zones boundary and 126W,
winds are moderate from the NNE and seas are 6-7 ft. South of the
monsoon trough winds are mainly moderate along with the seas.  

For the forecast, an area of low pressure will likely form this 
weekend well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent 
slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could 
form early next week as the low moves west-northwestward. Winds
south of the monsoon trough will reach fresh speeds between 100W
and 125W Sat as this low develops. Seas will become rough to 9
ft. Further wind strengthening to strong speeds is forecast Sat
night through Mon night along with building seas to 11 ft. 
Otherwise, winds and seas will slightly increase in the western 
tropical waters today as the tropical wave near 127W continues to
move westward before exiting the region this evening.

$$
Ramos