000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122009
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W extending southward from
the Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 83W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113.5W and N of 07N, moving 
W at around 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the tropical wave axis.
Any nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N98W to 13N113.5W to
09N132W. The ITCZ continues from 09N132W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N
between 90W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 13N between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are noted in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern is
supporting light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas 
of 1-3 ft, prevail over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, moderate winds will develop off the Baja 
California peninsula midweek. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in
the Tehuantepec region each night through the middle of the 
week. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will support light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downwind to about 91W with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted south of 
the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough, occasionally reaching moderate speeds in 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will be generally in the 4 to 6 ft 
range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia has opened to a trough that extends
from 29N137W to 22N137W. An area of moderate winds is noted 
NW of the trough, with maximum seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough between 110W 
and 121W with seas of 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, the remnant trough of Emilia will move W of 
the area on Tue. An area of 8 ft seas will persist S of the 
monsoon roughly between 110W and 120W through early tonight. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
expected. 

$$
AL