000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121435
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W and N of 07N, moving W 
at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in the
monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N100W to 14N113W to
10N132W. The ITCZ continues from 10N132W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 90W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 12N between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh 
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted elsewhere
over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas
of 2-3 ft, prevail over the Gulf of California.  

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas through at least mid-week. Seas 
will briefly build to 6-8 ft N off Punta Eugenia beginning on Thu
night. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Tehuantepec 
region each night through the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downwind to about 91W with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted south of 
the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds N of the 
monsoon trough. Seas will be generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The persistent remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 26N136W 
with a central pressure of 1014 mb. An area of moderate winds is
noted within about 120 nm NW quadrant of the low center with 
maximum seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh southerly winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 121W with seas of 8 
to 9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, moderate winds will persist to the north of 
the center of the remnant low of Emilia through today. Emilia is 
forecast to open up into a trough this afternoon, and move W of 
the area on Tue. An area of 8-9 ft seas will persist S of the 
monsoon roughly between 110W and 120W through tonight. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected. 

$$
AL