000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111441
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W and N of 07N to 
southwestern Mexico, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 102W and 108W. 
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in 
association with this feature off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. The disturbance will be moving into a much less 
favorable environment by tonight as it continues moving west-
northwestward around 15 mph, and tropical cyclone formation 
chances are decreasing. Regardless of development, this system 
could bring some heavy rain to portions of coastal southwestern 
Mexico during the next day or so. This system has a low chance 
of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Please refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N109W to 10N121W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 80W and 94W, from 07N to 13N
between 102W and 127W, and from 12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge prevails between the W coast of Baja California and the 
remnant low of Emilia. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, 
are noted west of the Baja peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 2-3 ft, prevail over the Gulf of California. Fresh 
to strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are noted in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail across the offshore 
waters of Baja California, supporting mainly gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas through at least mid-week. Seas will 
briefly build to 6-7 ft N of Punta Eugenia late Thu or Thu night.
In the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the 
ridge to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will support 
moderate to fresh SE winds today, with seas of 2 to 4 ft, mainly 
in the N and central parts of the Gulf. Fresh to occasionally 
strong northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region 
through Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and downwind to about 89W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted south of
the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, fresh NE winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Papagayo today. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next 
several days while light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough.
Seas will be generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 26N134W at 1200 UTC 
with a central pressure of 1013 mb. An area of fresh winds is 
noted within about 180 nm NW quadrant of the low center with 
maximum seas of 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough between 110W 
and 118W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh winds will persist to the north of the 
center of the remnant low of Emilia through tonight before 
diminishing early on Mon. Emilia is forecast to open up into a 
trough by Mon, and move W of the area on Tue. An area of 8 ft 
seas will persist S of the monsoon roughly between 110W and 120W 
through late Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are expected. 

$$
AL